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The America’s Cup - Survial of the Fittest

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        The thirtieth America's Cup will be held in Auckland, New Zealand starting on February 19, 2000. Eleven boats from seven different countries have been battling it out over the last three months in the Louis Vuitton Cup to win the right to challenge New Zealand for the cup. Five of these boats have already been eliminated after 165 hard races in three rounds. The remaining six will compete against each other in two more rounds, starting on January 2, until only one is left afloat. The remaining six contenders include an Italian team, a Japanese team, a French team and 3 American teams. The final team will race Team New Zealand for the cup itself, starting on February 19.

        Winning the America's Cup requires a fast, strong boat and a team that makes few mistakes, as in any sport. Boat speed and strength are the result of technology. Generally, a lighter boat is faster; but a heavier boat is stronger. To win, the boat must be strong enough to cross the finish line. A crew that makes few mistakes is directly related to how much practice and competition the team has had. To develop the technology of boat speed, to build two boats (an extra one for practice and testing), to maintain those boats in six months of competition requires a lot of money (about $50 million which has to be raised), a strong organization, and outstanding leadership. By studying the races to date, we can get an indication of which teams have what it takes to win.

        Prada, the Italian team, has the best won-lost record (26-3) and the best record against the Americans (against America True 3-0, against AmericaOne 2-1, and Team Dennis Conner 2-1). The Japanese do not have as good of a won-lost record as two of the American boats (America True and AmericaOne) but rank higher in the standings because they won most of their races in round robin three, where the wins counted nine points, versus four in round two and one point in round one.

        The racing has been extremely close. Of the one hundred and sixty-five races scheduled, only one hundred and forty occurred. In twenty-three races, only one boat raced as the other boat did not start, due to damage. In two races both competitors decided not to race. In half of the races completed with two boats, the victory margin was less than one minute plus sixteen seconds, or only 1.12% time difference. One race was won by only one second, or by only one second, or .02%. The biggest margin was 3:50 minutes or 11.09%. Of the six contenders, AmericaOne has the largest average winning margin of 3:19 minutes (2.50%) and the lowest average losing margin of 1:00 (0.80%). Prada's margins are also very good. America True has the thinnest winning margin of 1:02 minutes (0.82%) and a close losing margin of 1:23 minutes (1.15%). These statistics, however, just show that the boats are very close in speed.

        A very interesting statistic is that the boat that reaches the first weather mark (the end of the first leg of a six-leg course) won the race 85.4% of the time. Boat speed in this America's Cup is not as important as getting a clean start, picking the right first wind shifts on the first leg, and then closely covering the opponent. The winds are so shifty and fluky in New Zealand that any one-wind shift can wipe out any small difference in speed. On the same leg, one boat could have as much as two knots more wind speed; and the wind can change direction as much as 180 degrees.

        Not only have the races been close, they have also been dangerous. During the races, there were two broken masts at a cost of 500,000 dollars each. Four of the boats, which cost over 3 million dollars each, suffered significant damage, and one, Young America, representing the New York Yacht Club, broke in two and almost sank. There were seven main sails, at a cost of $150,000 each, that blew apart. Ten other sails blew up. There were numerous other problems, including a broken boom, a broken spinnaker pole, broken runners, halyards and winches. In twenty-six percent of the races, a boat suffered severe mechanical problems; and in twenty-nine times (18% of the races) one boat had to withdraw. Overall, mechanical failures caused the loss of 23% of the races. A very high failure rate, which is unacceptable in this level of competition. To win, a boat must not only be fast, it must also be able to cross the finish line of the final race.

        Most of the other lost races were due to blunders. There were 61 total errors (43.6% of the 140 races), including twenty (14.3%) 360 degrees penalty returns, 20 (14.3%) bad sail handling, and at least 21 (15%) stupid tactical mistake, such as not covering when ahead. At least seven times a crew made more than one mistake in the same race. These blunders, or errors, were enough to "cost the race" 27 times (19.3%) of the races that were started with two boats. Some of those blunders have been absurd. The French hit a spectator boat in the prestart of one race; and Young America entered a race from the wrong side.

        The Italians have shown they have their act totally together. They have two fast boats and have one of the lowest breakage rates, only 1 in 29 races. They have been practicing for two years and have one of the lowest error rates, 4 in 29 races. The Italians have a budget of an excess of $60 million. They could go the distance. They are in the best position to beat the Kiwis.

        The Japanese have done well also. They lost in the early rounds, but won when the races counted. They have a low breakage rate (2 in 30 races) but have the highest error rate (12 in 30 races). The Japanese had less than six months practice; but their skipper is extremely aggressive and has the highest number of penalties (5 in 30 races). This could be their fatal weakness. They barely have an adequate budget.

        America True, in third place, is a big surprise. It is a co-ed team, and the first America's Cup syndicate run by a woman, Dawn Riley. They have a very fast boat, but only one new one, and have to tune up against a 1995 vintage boat. Other than New Zealand, they were the first team to start practicing in New Zealand. They also have the lowest breakage rate (1 in 30 races) and a very low error rate (4 in 30). They have an excellent management, and a dedicated focus. America True has done a superb job in improving their speed on a limited budget less than $20 million. Almost all the experts, and the other competitors, wrote them off as a joke. They could very well be the Cinderella team of the Cup.

        AmericaOne has done a good job to get to the semi-finals, but not as good as the press built up. AmericaOne has a high breakage rate (4 in 30 races) and the second highest error rate (7 in 30). Paul Cayard, a popular and handsome professional sailor, is the team's biggest asset, and its biggest weakness. He too often yields the temptation to show off his sailing skills, and not concentrate on winning. From his performance in previous America's Cup campaigns, there is a question whether or not he is mentally tough enough to do what it takes to win.

        Team Dennis Connor, in fifth place, is limited by one boat and a small budget. However, they have the lowest error rate (1 in 30 races) and a low breakage rate (3 in 30). Dennis Connor knows what it takes to win. He has been in seven America's Cup finals, and has won five. He should never be counted out, but is still a long shot.

        The French got into the semi-finals by the skin of their teeth when AmericaTrue decided not to race the last race after their position was secured. The French have a high error rate (6 in 29 races) but a low breakage rate (2 in 29). Their boat is of average speed; but they have a strong will to win. With their small budget, they are a dark horse.

        No one has seen what the Kiwis can do as there is no defender's elimination bracket. However, they are still favored to keep the cup. As the rules are stacked in their favor, they are sailing in their home waters, and they have a large financial backing.

        The start, the first leg, covering, breakage, and errors are all critical. All the boats that have been eliminated had a bad start, high breakage and errors. All the teams have been worked hard to speed up their boats. The semi-finals will be very close and exciting. The two boats that survive will be the ones that make the fewest mistakes.

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